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Friday, October 26, 2007

Bookkeeping: Closing Juniper Networks (JNPR)

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I am closing the 1.2% position in Juniper Networks (JNPR) out this morning. This will raise $13,600. Let me explain the multiple reasons
  1. Portfolio reasons - I need to raise cash since I don't get new cash coming in the doors every day like a real mutual fund
  2. The stock has broken down below the 50 day moving average of $34.90; sitting right below it as we speak - this is the most tenuous reason as it can change promptly
  3. I have been increasing my networking position by buying globs of Riverbed Technology (RVBD) and Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) on their downfalls - so to keep "networking" as a consistent percentage of the fund, something needs to go.
  4. Valuation is pretty steep at 40x 2007 estimates and 30x 2008 estimates - the company is growing approximately 30% so the valuation is not excessive but not cheap either.
  5. As I wrote Tuesday: "The company beat nicely on revenue and beat by a penny on the bottom line; and gross margins are expanding. Solid all around but in this market, for a stock up nearly 100% this year and at a premium valuation, you need to do more than that. This is a solid stock and company, but at current valuations I don't see a ton of upside right now."
With what I expect to be a blockbuster quarter from Cisco (CSCO) I don't really like selling Juniper Networks (JNPR) but for the reasons outlined above I am going to do the dirty deed. There is a gap in the chart back at $28, created in mid July so if we have a general market sell off and Juniper gets whacked to such a level, I will get back in - this is also near its 200 day moving average. I am not counting on it; but proposing it as a place to re-enter. Or the other option is when the stock clears back over its 50 day moving average on some strength. So I will monitor the stock and see what it does from here.

Long Riverbed Technology, Blue Coat Systems in fund and in personal account


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