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Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Bookkeeping: Closing Bolt Technology (BTJ) Position

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I just had an entry on Bolt Technology (BTJ) earlier this week. I am closing this position as it is now up 50% in just 3 weeks; a massive move - unfortunately I have been correct in stock selection but terrible in timing my buys/sells on this name, as the stock seems to ignore most traditional technical analysis.

The stock broke below its 50 day moving average back in the beginning of August, at which time the stock was in the mid $40s. This began a 2 month swoon, which culminated in a break of the 200 day moving average below $31 in late September. Generally when a stock breaks that important level you get out of it. I never had a huge position in this topsy turvey name, but the move from that September low has been tremendous. My thought from looking back at the chart is this is a very small cap name and if even 1 major institution wanted out of the stock it could of put pressure on the stock price - once the selling let up, the stock was free to return to a 'normalized' level.

So I am exiting with a small gain. The volatility in the name has been amazing - if the stock pulls back to the low $40s, or about 15% down from here I will re-enter it, but I cannot get a handle on this name technically and my position now is so small ($4000) that even if it goes another 30% from here, it won't have much of an effect on overall fund performance. While pure technical traders would actually be buying a chart like this, I prefer to buy strong charts that have pulled back, not chase - hence why I am taking the opposite tact to a pure momentum trader.

No position


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