Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) - You Can't Stop It; You Can Only Hope to Contain It

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Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) roaring up 7%, and has now surpassed my year end target (pre split) of $100 (post split $50), as it is now in the $51s. I have mentioned this stock about 50x so I won't get into the nitty gritty (click on the link if you are new to the blog) - let's just say this looks like a stock that is going to mash its earnings estimates by the way it is behaving.

I did sell down this position last week to lock in gains as I raised cash, but it is still the 2nd largest long position @ 3.3% of the fund as of this moment, and at this point the technical story could not be better. Yes it surpassed my target in price but if the market says the target should be higher, whom am I to complain? It is STILL cheaper than Riverbed Technology (RVBD) which was my whole reason for overweighting this name, but it has closed the gap considerably in the past 3 weeks. I look for great fundamental strength in both names in this next earnings reports; however valuations are getting iffy. That said, compared to Chinese stocks these are outright steals at these valuations. ;)

I will sell 100 shares here near $51; simply because the market is not reacting very well to good earnings last night, aside from 2 areas (Chinese/big cap tech) Will try to rebuy in mid $40s if market lets me.

Long Blue Coat Systems, Riverbed Technology in fund; no personal position

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