Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Back to 20% Cash! I'm Antsy

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Did some "hedge trimming" (small cuts, $3K here, $4K there) among many names. Too numerous to mention, but got the cash up to $234K. I hope I didn't top tick my fund by reaching the wonderous $12.00 level yesterday since today was a lousy -1% day ;)

I'll update the 'portfolio' in the right margin tonight, so you can see how I'm positioned now. Again, my thesis is bears are shell shocked from Ben's recent actions and don't want to be sitting there to get burned a 3rd time. So if we don't have a lift post Fed "Hallelujah" we might have a lot of people looking around and saying "now what?" Another bullet expended. Earnings sure are not looking very good, nor guidance unless you are in about 4 out of 20 sectors. The other 16? Not so good. It has not mattered for a long time since so much liquidity is being poured into the system (don't these people feel guilty for what they are doing?) I can only imagine foreign investors - for every 1% gain in the S&P500, they lose that % gain to dollar depreciation. It's a fools game. I will be very interested in the dollar reaction tomorrow as well - and since crude is priced in dollars... well you know.

I'm antsy. Back to cash I go. One day the economy will matter. I fear which day it matters and it might overtake the simple fact we have too much liquidity chasing too few assets, which seems to all be flowing to commodities and a narrow band of equities.

I was truly hoping for some financial rebound Monday/Tuesday this week so I could buy the UltraShort Financial (SKF) at a lower price but they refuse to lift. Sort of sad and pathetic. Maybe 'hope' will return to them tomorrow. Or maybe people finally realize the BS that is "the kitchen sink" quarter, when yet another (and another) will lie ahead... remember, we still have the bathroom quarter and then the outhouse quarter to come.

Helicopters, locked and loaded.... sounds like a squadron, some bearded fella at the command center. Remember 2:16 PM tomorrow we can start talking about the next Fed cut in December. Sounds fun? I know, I can't wait either. Woo hoo.

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