Monday, October 22, 2007

Apple (AAPL) Reports

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OK OK - I guess my $6.7B revenue for Apple (AAPL) was out of line considering the company guided $5.7B and earnings of $0.65.

Talk about low balling expectations

Apple just in with whopping $6.22 B in revenue, beating Apple's conservative guidance by half a billion dollars on top line and beating their ridiculously conservative bottom line by $0.36!!!

Analysts were in for $6.02B and $0.86 so even analysts were off; try $1.01. As I stated earlier today, Apple just got a whole lot cheaper in 15 minutes.

For a company of this size year over year growth is astounding. $6.22 vs $4.84 B, 28.5% revenue growth. Profit $904M vs $542M, 67% increase in earnings - wow. Gross margin expansion from 29.2% to 33.6% - wow. Product mix anyone? And this is without the huge margins from iPhone subscription "service" kicking in - thats in the future. International sales now 40% of revenue - that surprised me too - didn't realize it was so high.

Mac computers 2.164M, 34% year over year growth (halo effect)
iPods 17% year over year growth

Guidance - another lowball as we get to Christmas season $9.2B in revenue and $1.42. So we can probably expect near $10B and $1.60-$1.70 if this quarter is any clue. Analysts had $8.6B and $1.39. So that means analysts are going to overshoot what Apple says and push it closer to the numbers I just mentioned.

Right now analysts say $4.59 for 2008 which starts this upcoming quarter, $5.00 is in the bag and will prove to be conservative for 2008 estimates. With gross margin expansion like that and 60% year over year earnings growth - you can throw whatever multiple you want on it; I say Apple $250 next year.

Any subprime dips, any world is slowing dips that clips Apple down to mid $100s - one needs to be buying Apple (AAPL) - they are the game changers in consumer electronics. Period.

Long Apple in fund and in personal account

4 comments:

Pankaj said...

Amen Brother! I'm gonna get on the AAPL train soon. My OSG call was not great this morning but made good money on SPWR and LDK today.

Cheers,
AJ

TraderMark said...

SPWR is a beast. I am just glad I cut back on TSL before it imploded. As an aside there is a story in Wall Street Journal front page about dry bulk shippers but its subscription only - I am curious what they said.

Hopefully something happens in next few months where they drop Apple kindly to say $150 ;)

Pankaj said...

That'd be a dream come true!! :)

Another wish, I would want SGR to pull back to 60!

Cheers..

TraderMark said...

I've been waiting for SGR to get to at least $64 - never met my wish. FWLT never pulled back to its 50 day average either so I think on the next pullback these names could drop all the way down as we have a failed "rally". All good for the long run though.

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