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Thursday, October 11, 2007

Allegheny Technologies (ATI) Warns

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I was just talking about this name yesterday on the Boeing Dreamliner delay. Now this evening Allegheny Technologies (ATI) warns - oooh, warning season is just full of land mines. Stock is down 13% after hours. Fortunately, this stock is a minor position at 0.5% of the fund, or about $5500. As I wrote yesterday, the near term psychology on this group won't be very good with the Boeing news even if the long term fundamentals remain in tact; in fact the damage to ATI is due to its stainless steel business instead of titanium.
  • Metals processor Allegheny Technologies Inc (ATI) said on Thursday it expects third-quarter and full-year earnings to be lower than Wall Street estimates because of soft demand for stainless steel sheet.
  • Full-year 2007 earnings will range from $7 to $7.25 per share, with third-quarter earnings of $1.85 to $1.88 per share, the Pittsburgh-based company said. Analysts currently expect $1.96 in the third quarter and $7.96 for the full year, according to Reuters Estimates.
  • Allegheny Technologies anticipates lower earnings for the second half of 2007 because of higher inventories at certain mills and depots and volatile raw material costs.
  • "The softness in demand for standard stainless sheet appears to be bottoming out and inventory levels at distributors are low by historic measures," Chief Executive Officer Patrick Hassey said in a statement.
  • However, Hassey said the longer-term outlook was strong. "We see continuing growth in demand for our high-value products from the global aerospace and defense, chemical process industry, oil and gas, and electrical energy markets."
  • Shipments under long-term agreements in these markets should continue to grow over the next several years, the company said. It does not anticipate a significant impact from the recently announced delay in the Boeing 787 Dreamliner schedule.
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Takeaway: Still like this name for the long run, but probably will be a flat line in the near term. With the stock around $95 in after hours, I'll see if we can get a bounce in the name over the next few days in the mid to upper $90s and than exit this position for now, and revisit at a later date. The chart looked fine, until 4:30 PM :) Due to the small size of the position, it won't have much impact on fund results.

Long Allegheny Technologies in fund; no personal position


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