The bailout begins.
Only 8 people (6%) chose this option in the poll... so once again the least amount got it right ;) Congrats to those 8 people for being so prescient.
25% said no cut
43% said one 25 basis and done
25% said 25 basis cut and then continuing easing
The scuttlebutt was that if the Fed cut by 50 basis it means conditions are worse than they appear on the surface - but right now that conventional wisdom is on it's head in the alley as the market ramps up. Strange, Lehman told us this morning everything was ok :) Wonder how much of this is short covering vs buying. The next question is "What is the Fed seeing that common people are not seeing that required such drastic steps?" Hmmm.... maybe everything outlined in this blog hah.
And they said Bernanke was different from Al.... I guess not so much.
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7 comments:
Yeah, now it's likely the talking heads will be going on about how a 50 point cut means things really are bad after all, how little this cut will actually mean overall, and what this means for the dollar.
Think the market will be red later this week?
See the PPI report? The major headlines are talking about how the "overall index fell" sharply. But the core index was up more than predicted. We're supposed to be discounting energy and food all the time, right? Or only when it makes things look better?
Well I thought 25 fed funds and 50 discount would be pretty aggressive. I don't know how the market will take it; right now its an orgy of buying intertwined with shorts covering like mad. One has to ask why were these steps so necessary, but I doubt that question will be asked anytime soon.
CPI and PPI are essentially useless tools, especially CPI due to substitution effect (I posted a link this weekend on interesting links and one of them was about the issues with CPI) - basically once prices get too expensive on steak, the substitute the price of hamburger for steak and tada - your CPI just fell.
For now just go with the flow of the market - they want it up. Up we go!
Gonna try some of the short ETFs in personal account - here with everything up 2.5-3.0% .. just for a short term trade. Could get vaporized instantly ... this is like a carnival ride... sheesh
"Today’s action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time... Developments in financial markets since the Committee’s last regular meeting have increased the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook."
Sounds pretty glum to me.
"The Committee will continue to assess the effects of these and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth."
Even more cuts might be likely?
More cuts? So we can repeat this all over again? Ohhh.... sounds yummy
p.s. DOW 2.4% below all time highs :)
Apparently this was all just a bad dream. Glad we woke up. Too bad for the people who lost their jobs and stuff but rich people have mouths to feed!
LEH is up nearly 10%. A post on the LEH Yahoo board sums it all up: "Credit crunch was more of a media creation than anything. "
All is well, I guess...
Damn Media. Always making stuff up. Did they post fake film in Northern Rock branches? I knew this was all a conspiracy. If one had fell asleep in late July and woke up today, you'd not know anything had happened :)
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