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Friday, September 7, 2007

Sandisk (SNDK) is first in the "buying list" to pullback

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Sandisk (SNDK) is the first stock on the shopping list to pullback to support. It is now just below $53, from $58 just a few days ago; a 10% haircut and now scraping against its 50 day moving average. I will be adding some here, about 100 shares to build up my position. SNDK was already 2.7% of the portfolio going into the day.

Please note, Sandisk (SNDK) is very expensive on 2007 estimates of $1.36 but 21x 2008 earnings of $2.53 which will probably be quite understated by the time we get there. A move to $47-$50 if the market should tank would not surprise me.

With that said, getting more long anything right now is probably early. I think the whole market needs to rethink the earnings outlook for those companies tied to the US economy. So I will be patient overall. Everytime we have a bad Friday people trot out the Black Monday 1987 ghost, so look for some commentator today to call for it, along with the calls for 50 basis cuts needed today blah blah. Of course interest rate cuts take many months (quarters in fact) to work their way through the economy so if you cut on the 10th or 18th, does it really matter? Not a bit, other than for psychology.

Also word out Bin Laden will have a new video out .... also word out Greenspan calling current times mirror image of 1998 and 1987. 1998 I get... 1987? Seems a bit extreme, and I sure hope not. Not a great backdrop. Amazing how psychology changes so quickly in this market - wasn't it just Tuesday the market was up so much when people got back from the Hamptons? Not that I understood that move, but just shows you the emotion that goes into the daily white noise of the market.

Long SNDK in fund; no personal positions

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