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Thursday, September 6, 2007

Riverbed Technology (RVBD) very weak

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Riverbed Technology (RVBD) has been very weak the last 2 sessions. While I think the valuation is still rich, and a drop to mid $30s is certainly possible, I am buying back a portion of my trading position for the fund here.

The stock was nearly $47 Tuesday and just hit $40, so a nearly 15% drop in the last 2 sessions. I mentioned Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) is my favored play in the space here, due to attractive valuation vs Riverbed, but with this sharp fall I will begin nibbling on RVBD as well. However yesterday's drop was on quite huge volume and the stock sliced through its 50 day moving average (north of $43) as if it wasn't there. The stock dropped below $37 on the waterfall selling crescendo in mid August, and the 200 day moving average is now just below $36, so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a drop to that level, especially if the market weakens. I'd be a more aggressive buyer at that level, but certainly am still hoping for a more sizeable drop in Blue Coat Systems as I opined here.

Long Riverbed Technology, Blue Coat Systems in fund; no personal positions

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