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Sunday, September 30, 2007

Revisiting 12 Stocks to Buy on the Next Pullback

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I decided to look back at my post from September 5th: 12 Stocks to Buy on the Next Pullback to see how the individual names performed. Obviously the fly in the ointment is we never had any serious pullback so a lesson learned might be, just buy quality names!

While I mentioned 12 stocks to buy, this was a look by sector so I actually listed 19 names, and mentioned the reader could pick some of the names from the sector they preferred.

The SP500 in that time returned 3.70%, and Russell 2000 1.90% in that time for comparison

In the 'less cyclical' oil services group I said pick 2 of the following 3:
NOV +9.96%
CLB +11.85%
FTI +15.85%

In the deep sea oil drillers I picked:
DO +5.05%

In the solar power space I picked:
LDK +24.41%

In the networking space I picked:
BCSI +3.95%
However, please note BCSI has pulled back nearly 10 points from its highs on Monday where it hit $89.80 (it now trades @ $78.76) Using the $89.80 print, it returned >18.5%

In the "technology - all other" category I said pick 2 of the following 5:
RIMM +18.36%
GRMN +12.78%
SNDK -1.34%
BRCM +4.03%
AAPL +12.22%

As mentioned this past week, I have sold out of the GRMN position in the fund, and trimmed some AAPL (for good performance) and SNDK (for not performing well of late)

In the global infrastructure/energy buildout I picked:
MDR +11.23%
FWLT +12.72%

In the global agriculture space I said pick 1 of these 2:
POT +17.73%
CF +14.84%

In the China sector I said pick 1 of these 3:
ACH +9.46%
CHL +22.52%
LFC +22.04%

In the retail space my 1 pick was:
CROX +20.24%

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So overall it's been a pretty dynamic group - the equal weighted return of all 19 names is 13.05% and if you were a trader and sold BCSI at its higher range before this tremendous pullback the return is 13.81%. Eliminating Sandisk (SNDK) would push up the performance by nearly 1% as well on 18 names. With that said, even the 13.05% basket would of crushed the SP500's 3.70% and Russell 2000's 1.90% for that time frame.

Once again I've taken profits on some of these names for the fund, as these are tremendous runs in such a short time span, but it shows quality stock picking generally is a better strategy than trying to time the market and looking for perfect entry points. However, I wish the fund's exposure to this 'favorite' list I compiled was larger over the past month. I certainly left some potential performance on the table.

2 comments:

msb said...

Pretty solid choices. Nicely done.

TraderMark said...

Thanks. Goes with the theme of the fund - get the sector correct and the rest will take care of itself. :)

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