I just found an interesting website, that probably says it all
BubbleXchange
I wonder if the formation of such websites signals a near term top, much like the infamous "magazine cover" indicator i.e. when you start seeing "How to Retire by Owning Real Estate" in 2006 or "It's Really Different This Time - How Dot Com Companies are Changing the World" in 2001 - on the cover of Time or Newsweek.
Again, this index (mainland A shares) trade in their own twilight zone as foreign investment is nearly impossible, and most mainland Chinese are only allowed to invest in this 1 index. 1 year ago the index stood at 1700, 1 MONTH ago it stood around 4000. Now it 5200.
1 year chart is here
Did I mentioned that a large portion of the "E" (earnings) in the P/E (of >50) are from investment gains and not operations?
Now bubbles can continue for much longer than we anticipate and the same arguements people are making now could of been made 2000 points ago. (and probably were) But these things never end well. It does not mean the Chinese economy is going to go south, as an economy and a market don't necessarily go hand in hand especially in such extremes. But at some point this will be very ugly for the actual market.
So keep speculating if you wish; but make sure you exit stage right or find one of the very few chairs that will be available when the music stops.
As an aside, the China economy is now suffering from both food inflation and impending wage inflation. Somehow 10% GDP growth is not so easy to manage (imagine that). How long before China becomes too expensive and capital moves to cheaper pastures like Vietnam. 2012? 2015? Remember in the mid 90s when Mexico was where all the factories were moving? How quickly they can turn on you....
Saturday, September 1, 2007
The growing bubble in the Shanghai Index
Posted by
TraderMark
at
9:34 PM
TweetThis
TweetThis
Posted by
TraderMark
at
9:34 PM
Comments (2)
| Edit This Post |
Create A New Post
Labels: China market
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Most Visited Sites
Sites I Wish I Had More Time To Read
- Newsflashr
- FinViz.com
- Zero Hedge
- Wall St Cheet Sheat
- Naked Capitalism
- Baseline Scenario
- Abnormal Returns
- TickerSpy
- Financial Armageddon
- Infectious Greed
- FT.com Alphaville.com
- 24/7 Wall Street
- The Daily Bail
- Matt Taibbi Blog
- Calculated Risk
- NYMag
- Real Clear Markets
- All About Trends
- Carpe Diem
- What's Trading
- Finz.tv
- Zentrader
- The Financial Ninja
- Daily Options Report
- Markman
- Notable Calls
- UpsideTrader
- The Smart Money Tracker
- Stock Trading to Go
- Nouriel Roubini's Blog
- Dealbreaker
- Investment Postcards
- Toro's Running of the Bulls
- Barron's Tech Trader Daily
- Market Oracle
- StraightStocks
- FINAlternatives (Hedge Funds)
- Money and Markets
- The Market Speculator
- Contrarian Profits
- Wall Street Blips
- Wall$treet Fighter
- StreetInsider Analysts News
- Blogging Stocks (AOL)
- The Daily Reckoning
- 1440 Wall Street
- HedgeFolios
- ETF Trends
- Hedge Fund Consultant Blog
- Daily Options Report
- Get Rich Slick
- Wall $treet Folly
- Guru Focus
- Fundmastery
- The Fly on the Wall
- Bill Gross PIMCO Archives
- MrSwing.com
Industry Focus Sites
- Forex Trading
- US Debt Clock
- Bloomberg Bond Yields
- List of ADRs by Country
- Mr. Copper (Kitco)
- Gas Price by State
- Mortgage Trends
- Debt Maturations
- Form 4 Oracle - Insider Filings
- Chinese Stocks
- Greentech Media
- gnuTrade
- MineWeb
- SPDR ETFs Chart
- Coal Future Pricing - Europe
- Coal Pricing - US
- Baltic Exchange Dry Index
- Solar Feeds
- The Housing Bubble
- HousingPANIC
- BusinessofVideo.com (CDNs)
Some Mutual Funds That Perk My Interest
- CGM Mutual (Kenneth Heebner)
- CGM Focus (Kenneth Heebner)
- Quaker Strategic Growth
- Loomis Sayles Mid Cap Growth
- Bridgeway Aggressive Investors
- Eaton Vance Multi Cap Growth
- Saratoga Large Cap Growth
- AFBA Five Star Large Cap
- American Century Vista
- American Century Heritage
- TCW Growth Equities
- Dynamic Power American Growth (Noah Blackstein)
- Dover Long/Short Sector Fund
Weekly Most Read
- 1; Goldman Sachs Q3 Winning Percentage: 98.4%
- 2: Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway to Acquire Burlington Northern; Split Shares
- 3: STEC Crashes 30% on EMC Inventory Warning
- 4: Las Vegas Sands Earnings "Ok" but CEO Talk Supports Stock
- 5: Barron's - a Scare that can Last Beyond Halloween
- 6: Nearly 600,000 Americans Walked Away from their Mortgage in 2008
- 7: Paul Tudor Jones Q3 Investor Letter - Another Gold Bug
- 8: Nouriel Roubini CNBC: "Mother of all Carry Trades"
- 9: Potential Fly in Bull's Ointment - Early Stage Head and Shoulders Formation
Archives By Date
-
►
2009(1836)
-
►
11/01 - 11/08(38)
- In Case You Missed It - the Week's Most Popular Po...
- Blackstone Group (BX) Continues its Recovery; Beat...
- Wells Fargo (WFC) Kicks the Can by Transofrming Op...
- Potential Fly in Bull Ointment: Early Stage Head a...
- Bookkeeping: Making Some Long Purchases
- Bookkeeping: Adding Some Index Longs on Morning Pu...
- Official Unemployment Rate Hits 10.2%; Reality is ...
- #1 Article on UK Telegraph Website: No Respect, No...
- Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) - More Global Labor Arbit...
- Yet Another "V" Shaped Bounce- Old Patterns Seem U...
- Fannie Mae's New Deed for Lease Program - Rent you...
- Bookkeeping: Closing Myriad Genetics (MYGN) as Ear...
- Groundhog Day - is it Wednesday or Thursday?
- Fuel Systems Solutions (FSYS) Rockets Over 20% on ...
- General Updates: Mutual Fund, Website, Misc.
- Whitney Tilson T2 Partners October 2009 Investor L...
- Bookkeeping: Selling a Third of Silver (SLV) Posit...
- Still Many Broken Charts Despite the Index Rallies...
- Market Jumps Back over 50 Day Moving Average as In...
- Goldman Sachs (GS) Q3 Winning Percentage: 98.4%
- STEC (STEC) Crashes 30% on EMC (EMC) Inventory War...
- Nouriel Roubini on CNBC: "Mother of all Carry Trad...
- Showdown at the Federal Reserve Corral
- Nearly 600,000 Americans Walked Away from their Mo...
- Apple's (AAPL) iPhone Only Sells 5000 Units in 1st...
- Bookkeeping: Buying Long Term Downside Protection ...
- Ugly Premarket Action
- International Monetary Fund to Sell One Eighth of ...
- Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) to Acqu...
- Lack of Green Energy Manufacturing Capability in U...
- Good News Sold, S&P Turned Back at 50 Day Moving A...
- NYT: Are Chinese Video Game Makers a Threat to Wes...
- The Market with no Memory from Day to Day
- Conseco (CNO) - A Chance to Follow John Paulson wi...
- Bookkeeping: Weekly Changes to Fund Positions Year...
- First Time Home Buyers and Investors Dominate the ...
- Updated Position Sheet
- Bookkeeping: Bought BHP Billiton (BHP)
-
►
10/25 - 11/01(48)
- Barron's: A Scare that Can Last Beyond Halloween (...
- WSJ: ChiNext, China's Self Styled NASDAQ, Shines i...
- Fund My Mutual Fund's Most Popular - Last 60 Days
- Intraday Bounce at S&P 1034
- With Apologies to Thin Lizzy....the Bears are Back...
- Costco (COST) to Roll Out Food Stamps Nationwide; ...
- Bookkeeping: Added some Short Hedges
- Nice Reversal - Back to the 50 Day Moving Average ...
- Bookkeeping: Stopped Out 2/3rds of Atheros Communi...
- Hugh Hendry Resurfaces on CNBC October 2009
- ► 10/18 - 10/25(37)
- ► 10/11 - 10/18(40)
- ► 10/04 - 10/11(35)
- ► 09/27 - 10/04(41)
- ► 09/20 - 09/27(39)
- ► 09/13 - 09/20(35)
- ► 09/06 - 09/13(32)
- ► 08/30 - 09/06(32)
- ► 08/23 - 08/30(34)
- ► 08/16 - 08/23(36)
- ► 08/09 - 08/16(39)
- ► 08/02 - 08/09(40)
- ► 07/26 - 08/02(45)
- ► 07/19 - 07/26(45)
- ► 07/12 - 07/19(45)
- ► 07/05 - 07/12(40)
- ► 06/28 - 07/05(31)
- ► 06/21 - 06/28(37)
- ► 06/14 - 06/21(44)
- ► 06/07 - 06/14(42)
- ► 05/31 - 06/07(44)
- ► 05/24 - 05/31(39)
- ► 05/17 - 05/24(33)
- ► 05/10 - 05/17(39)
- ► 05/03 - 05/10(47)
- ► 04/26 - 05/03(45)
- ► 04/19 - 04/26(43)
- ► 04/12 - 04/19(40)
- ► 04/05 - 04/12(40)
- ► 03/29 - 04/05(40)
- ► 03/22 - 03/29(45)
- ► 03/15 - 03/22(45)
- ► 03/08 - 03/15(46)
- ► 03/01 - 03/08(49)
- ► 02/22 - 03/01(49)
- ► 02/15 - 02/22(45)
- ► 02/08 - 02/15(49)
- ► 02/01 - 02/08(49)
- ► 01/25 - 02/01(49)
- ► 01/18 - 01/25(38)
- ► 01/11 - 01/18(53)
- ► 01/04 - 01/11(52)
-
►
11/01 - 11/08(38)
-
►
2008(2199)
- ► 12/28 - 01/04(27)
- ► 12/21 - 12/28(25)
- ► 12/14 - 12/21(41)
- ► 12/07 - 12/14(39)
- ► 11/30 - 12/07(34)
- ► 11/23 - 11/30(31)
- ► 11/16 - 11/23(33)
- ► 11/09 - 11/16(33)
- ► 11/02 - 11/09(33)
- ► 10/26 - 11/02(43)
- ► 10/19 - 10/26(35)
- ► 10/12 - 10/19(34)
- ► 10/05 - 10/12(38)
- ► 09/28 - 10/05(40)
- ► 09/21 - 09/28(46)
- ► 09/14 - 09/21(52)
- ► 09/07 - 09/14(49)
- ► 08/31 - 09/07(36)
- ► 08/24 - 08/31(43)
- ► 08/17 - 08/24(48)
- ► 08/10 - 08/17(50)
- ► 08/03 - 08/10(46)
- ► 07/27 - 08/03(46)
- ► 07/20 - 07/27(49)
- ► 07/13 - 07/20(48)
- ► 07/06 - 07/13(52)
- ► 06/29 - 07/06(42)
- ► 06/22 - 06/29(47)
- ► 06/15 - 06/22(41)
- ► 06/08 - 06/15(39)
- ► 06/01 - 06/08(36)
- ► 05/25 - 06/01(30)
- ► 05/18 - 05/25(39)
- ► 05/11 - 05/18(40)
- ► 05/04 - 05/11(41)
- ► 04/27 - 05/04(48)
- ► 04/20 - 04/27(44)
- ► 04/13 - 04/20(48)
- ► 04/06 - 04/13(41)
- ► 03/30 - 04/06(54)
- ► 03/23 - 03/30(41)
- ► 03/16 - 03/23(47)
- ► 03/09 - 03/16(32)
- ► 03/02 - 03/09(44)
- ► 02/24 - 03/02(54)
- ► 02/17 - 02/24(40)
- ► 02/10 - 02/17(57)
- ► 02/03 - 02/10(57)
- ► 01/27 - 02/03(49)
- ► 01/20 - 01/27(48)
- ► 01/13 - 01/20(46)
- ► 01/06 - 01/13(43)
-
▼
2007(913)
- ► 12/30 - 01/06(33)
- ► 12/23 - 12/30(29)
- ► 12/16 - 12/23(39)
- ► 12/09 - 12/16(36)
- ► 12/02 - 12/09(33)
- ► 11/25 - 12/02(44)
- ► 11/18 - 11/25(25)
- ► 11/11 - 11/18(44)
- ► 11/04 - 11/11(54)
- ► 10/28 - 11/04(51)
- ► 10/21 - 10/28(57)
- ► 10/14 - 10/21(55)
- ► 10/07 - 10/14(57)
- ► 09/30 - 10/07(55)
- ► 09/23 - 09/30(41)
- ► 09/16 - 09/23(41)
- ► 09/09 - 09/16(37)
- ► 09/02 - 09/09(31)
-
▼
08/26 - 09/02(44)
- The growing bubble in the Shanghai Index
- Further analysis on Smithfield Food's (SFD) via Mo...
- I totally missed Crocs (CROX)
- Where in the world is Eric Bolling?
- Et tu, September?
- Whose not participating today? A Top 10 list
- A bit of a remarkable quirk
- "Surprise event": Bush bailout
- Investor's Business Daily Interview with Blue Coat...
- Test Portfolio for 2009
- Bookkeeping: Fund positions updated
- Foster Wheeler (FWLT) and McDermott (MDR) looking ...
- Google (GOOG) can't get any traction - it this why...
- Ciena (CIEN) swings from +5% permarket to -6% open...
- Closing Yingli Green Energy (YGE) position this mo...
- Ciena (CIEN) earnings strong ; stock up 5% premark...
- New site design, from 2 columns to 3
- Inflation in groceries, Fed between a rock and har...
- California home prices
- Bookkeeping: Closing Limelight Networks (LLNW) pos...
- Chinese solar stocks outperfoming today
- Cramer on Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) back in May
- Ciena (CIEN) reports tomorrow
- Why a rally today?
- Level 3 Communications (LVLT) as a threat to Akama...
- Cisco (CSCO) has been a rock - the return of the n...
- Names in the green today...
- Quite an ugly close, Russell 2000 leading the way ...
- Doug Kass of Realmoney.com reporting a pre Fed mee...
- Coach (COH) as the true retail tell
- Lightening up on many positions
- China "A" shares bubble
- Getting more short ETFs
- Technical Analysis of the major averages
- Follow up on Core Labrotories (CLB)
- Fellow blogger on China/Hong Kong relationship
- Another day the index averages are not telling the...
- Putting the hedges back on
- Continuing theme for bullishness on Hong Kong
- No stopping Aluminum Corp of China (ACH)
- Will the Fed really cut rates?
- Is Pork the next Chinese boom play?
- The world's richest man - no, it it's not Gates an...
- Some updates on Blue Coat Systems (BCSI)
- ► 08/19 - 08/26(43)
- ► 08/12 - 08/19(37)
- ► 08/05 - 08/12(27)









2 comments:
"Coming from Michigan I have been astounded at the wealth created by people in CA (and a handful of other states, simply by sitting in the right location for 5 years and doing nothing else other than ‘living’)."
No. Silly money and no work is investing in stocks of companies with no earnings and seeing them go up 1000 fold (INSP, ENRN, CPTH etc)
(Sorry about your football team)
Hi Larry,
Low blow on the football team - this will never be lived down. Hopefully forgotten... by 2050.
True on the stocks going up 1000x on no earnings or no real prospects. But I don't think the person buying a home in Sacramento in 2001 for 240K, and seeing it worth 570K in 2006 really did any rocket science either. Just dumb luck in some ways. (I am speaking of the person just looking for a place to live, not the person speculating in 2001 that CA real estate was a great deal and it was time to buy real estate).
Let's agree there is silly money being created in bubbles here, there, and everywhere.
Post a Comment