Ciena (CIEN) Analyst Day next Tuesday

I have been writing about the consistent snooze fest in Ciena (CIEN) since its blowout quarter results at the end of August.

To call the action in Ciena the past month frustrating would be an understatement; no movement at all - completely range bound. I am looking for a move past $40 as confirmation to buy in even more scale than I already have, but with an Ciena analysts day next Tuesday we might finally have some catalyst(s) to move this stock over the strike price ($38.15) of its debt convertible and off to new highs - I am adding back 300 shares here in anticipation of this being a potential catalyst. If the stock finally clears $40 and away from the demons of the convertible, I will be adding much more as I believe this stock should be a $45 valuation 'today'. The stock has been stuck on its 50 day moving average the entire month of September.

Ciena's EPS estimates for 2007 are $1.29 and 2008 $1.73, both numbers up substantially from before the last earnings report but the stock has done zilch. With the rebirth of telecom spending as we need 'fat pipes' to play all these Youtube videos, the networking sector has really picked up. Ciena has chunky revenue due to a concentration of customers so there is always the risk that a huge quarter can be followed by an inline one, but I can see this as a $53+ stock in about 12 months if the company continues to execute; which would be a 40% gain from here. The market is throwing money hand over fist at 'growth' but Ciena has been ignored in the past month.

Ciena is back up to 3.9% of the fund.

Seeking Alpha has a transcript of Ciena's last conference call here. As always I think its important to read the Q&A sessions of conference calls to get the real scoop.

Long Ciena in fund; no personal position