Tuesday, September 4, 2007

Apple (AAPL) of my eye - or is it Sandisk (SNDK)

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Apple (AAPL) really is an amazing story. What a transformation from 'computer maker' to digital revolution hero in a span of a few years. This is one stock I should never have traded from some of my initial buys a few years back - I always seem to be out of step in trading Apple - it's just one of those stocks. I won't talk much about Apple because I think the story is pretty well known - although I do agree with commentators who say, look out for their iMac sales - with this ability to run WinTel programs smoothly, there is no legitimate barrier to switching over to an Apple brand computer - halo effect people, halo effect; its a lifestyle brand!

Anyhow, the fund has a 1% stake or so in Apple (AAPL), nothing major - however I've been keeping an eye on a 'flash' from the past (oh a play on words) - Sandisk (SNDK) . Apple has this special media day tomorrow, and the rumor mill is swirling. Just type Apple rumors Sept 5th into Google and you will get everything you could ever want to know. However, a few of the sites have a very interesting note, such as this one. A full line of iPods, all using flash NAND memory. Hmmm.... good for Apple; great for Sandisk. Now Sandisk has already been breaking out, with a jump from $52 to $56 in the past week. Now Sandisk *IS* a cyclical play, but could be morphing.... well not into a secular play perhaps, but at least a company with the potential for longer term cycles.

I had a 350 share position going into the day (just under 2% of the fund's holdings) and added 100 more today on this continued breakout in anticipation of this rumor becoming fact tomorrow. We are moving to a flash NAND world, with or without this Apple announcement, and that bodes well for Sandisk - but this would just accelerate things.

Sandisk hit $58ish in early August before the market meltdown, so the market gods gave us another chance to get in with the recent swoon. A stall here at the $58 level would definitely not be a great thing as that would create a 'double top' (ooh bad TA term). But a break through $58 and it appears off to the races for cyclical Sandisk.

Long Apple, Sandisk in fund; no personal positions

1 comments:

TraderMark said...

Good post here, listed today:
http://sramanamitra.com/2007/09/04/iphoneipod-beneficiary-sandisk/

Seems with Apple sopping up oodles of NAND memory from Samsung, the price for products of all players in the market should be.... up. Now let's see if Apple comes through.

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