Friday, September 21, 2007

An Apple (AAPL) a Day?

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As mentioned yesterday I try not to talk about this stock daily since one could create a whole blog around Apple (AAPL) but the good news just keeps on coming, forcing me to continue to write glowing blog posts...

Today's news from Scott Moritz over at TheStreet.com: Apple Mac Sales Surging
  • iPhone fever may have obscured the robust growth in Apple's (AAPL) Macs.
  • People familiar with the company say Apple is selling computers at a blockbuster pace. The Cupertino, Calif., company is expected to sell 2.35 million iMacs and MacBooks this quarter, TheStreet.com has learned. A sales number that high would beat analysts' estimates by nearly 400,000 units.
  • Pegging the average Mac sales price at a conservative $1,500, a beat of that magnitude stands to boost Apple's top line by about $600 million. Analysts expect the company to post fiscal first-quarter revenue of $5.94 billion.
  • The popularity of Apple's computer lineup has been fueled by a robust back-to-school buying spree and a revamped iMac roster, say industry watchers.
  • Apple has about 3% of the world's computer market share
  • Looking ahead, people inside the company and those close to Apple's plans say there will be a big announcement regarding a so-called subnotebook Mac. The ultra-thin device will have a 10-inch to 12-inch screen; sleek, rounded edges; and weigh less than 2 pounds.
  • The subnotebook's introduction is planned for next quarter, and the product is expected to be available for the holiday sales season. In preparation for a big year-end sales push, Apple has told some employees to cancel vacation plans "between Thanksgiving and Christmas," says one source familiar with the memo.
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Takeaway: What more is there to say? This company is a home run in every way - cool stuff, that is easy to use, that teenagers love, teenagers that turn into college students, who turn into young consumers. A company that can charge a premium on the same mass market components than other companies just due to cool factor. Think Nike of consumer electronics. This constant consternation about a price cut here, or XXX amount unit miss there, blah blah. Missing the forest for the trees. 3% computer market share. What happens if Apple gets 6% in the next 3 years? or 10%?

Looking at the numbers above, we are looking at potentially a 20% surprise to the upside on computer sales and a 10% upside surprise on revenue from the computer division alone! And now we are talking about an even lighter and smaller notebook? (other than concerns about too small of a keyboard) all I can say is "hit". But wait it took them 74 days instead of 43 days to sell out a million iPhones. Tragic ;) Again, the only fly in the ointment is this Steve Jobs options backdating situation... but operationally this company is turning into a 1 stop shop for everything consumer electronics; and can sell it all at a premium to competitors on 'brand' name alone.

Long Apple in fund; no personal position


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