Wednesday, September 5, 2007

12 Stocks to buy on the next pullback

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With the market up so much of late, and a much needed pullback eventually coming, what are some stocks/sectors we can focus on, and start to make shopping lists? I would focus on stocks that have shown strength in the last 2 week rally, and are firmly over their 50 day moving average; and seem to have no major headwinds. This would exclude some names such as Google (GOOG), which is struggling with the 50 day moving average, and might be weak due to this, or a name like Akamai Technologies (AKAM) which has its own set of issues.

Let's break it down into sectors - where I will give you a list of choices and then give you what is on my shopping list. A pullback of any of these names to their 50 day moving average would be an enticing entry point.

Sector: Oil service of a less cyclical nature This sector has been discussed here and here. Pick 2 names.
5 names in this bunch:
National Oilwell Varco (NOV), Core Laboratories (CLB), FMC Technologies (FTI) which have been discussed thus far in the blog plus two new names I am researching now: Smith International (SII), Cameron International (CAM)

You could literally overlay the stock charts of one over the other in this group and it would be a carbon copy - so two names in this group should give you a good enough exposure. I'm most familiar with NOV and CLB so those are my 2 choices on a pullback.
CLB $113, a pullback to $104 or 8% would take it to its 50 day moving average
NOV $130, a pullback to $114 or 12%

Sector: Deep sea oil drilling Just discussed yesterday; pick 1
My choice is Diamond Offshore (DO) $108, a pullback to $100 or 7.5%

Sector: Solar power pick 1
Many names in this sector but the best chart by far belongs to LDK Solar (LDK) $58, a pullback to $41 or nearly 30% - seems a bit out of the question. So perhaps a pullback to the 20 day moving average ($47) for this exception, which would require a drop of 19%

So that is the 'energy subset', next on to tech

Sector: Technology - Networking Just discussed yesterday in regards to my 1 pick, BCSI; pick 1
Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) $80, a pullback to $61 or 24%. That might be asking a lot, so much like LDK let's look at the 20 day which is just under $72, requiring a 10% drop from here.

Sector: Technology - All other This is a mix of the well known momentum names. Pick 2 names from this bunch: Research in Motion (RIMM), Garmin (GRMN), Sandisk (SNDK), Broadcom (BRCM), Apple (AAPL)
My picks? Too close to call, run the charts and pick 2 of the 5 and run with it. All these save Broadcom are plays on the digital convergence/entertainment thesis.

So last we move on to the globalization push - companies that are based either here or abroad whose exposure to the domestic economy is overshadowed by their exposure overseas and/or their secular growth story is just so strong or a specific niche that any consumer/economic slowdown will glance off them....

Sector: Global infrastructure/energy buildout I follow 10 names in this sector; pick 2. Three charts have been standouts: Fluor (FLR), McDermott (MDR), Foster Wheeler (FWLT)
FLR $128, a pullback to $118 or 8%
MDR $96, a pullback to $85 or 11.5%
FWLT $116, a pullback to $108, or 7%

My 2 choices are the latter two due to valuation vs Fluor.

Sector: Global agriculture Many ways to play this, with fertilizer, with heavy machinery i.e. Deere (DE), seeds/conglomerate such as Monsanto (MON) - I'm focusing on the fertilizer stocks for now and the best 2 charts have been Potash (POT), CF Industries (CF) ; pick 1.
POT $89, a pullback to $82 or 8%
CF $63.50, a pullback to $58 or 8.5%

My pick? Either - they seem to be trading in lockstep; Potash has the more favorable fundamentals from the perspective they can expand supply, but also the premium valuation in the group.

Sector: China Now this group is very extended so I won't bother with the numbers, but 3 of the big boys of interest are: Aluminum Corp of China (ACH), China Mobile (CHL), China Life (LFC); pick 1.
I have been using ACH as my proxy for China in the fund; however it would take quite a large pullback to get aggressively long in this, or any, of these names.

Sector: Retail Yes, I said retail but very narrowly - we discussed Crocs (CROX) recently, and the other name is Under Armour (UA); pick 1
CROX $58, a pullback to $52 or 10%
UA $65, a pullback to $59, or 9%

My choice here is CROX due to valuation discount to UA.

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So there you have it, you can create a nice portfolio of 12 stocks which should be (relatively speaking) unaffected by the overhead issues facing our economy. So do some digging, see which you like, and make a shopping list. Then the next time the market pulls back and you feel sick in the pit of your stomach instead of turning off the PC, put some of that free cash to work. (you did take some off the table in this strength right?) :)

Note: 50 day moving averages change daily and when the market/these stocks do pullback the support line will have moved up by some degree.

Long all names except CAM/SII/UA/CHL/LFC/FLR/RIMM in fund, no personal positions

3 comments:

msb said...

Great post!

Might I suggest another sector: shipping. Good examples might be TBSI, GNK, MCX, DRYS, etc.

TraderMark said...

I think I missed the 'boat' on those (hahah I love puns)

DRYS I have been watching, I know the story behind the dry bulk shipping. I was actually in the oil transport stocks 2-3 years ago and after a nice run got burnt. The problem was the big boys know the shipping rates so if you are not watching like a hawk you can get burnt. Now they say dry bulk is different from oil transport but in terms of a 3-5 year story I don't know. Much like steel, its not an industry where more supply cannot be brought online.... i.e. there is only so much copper in this world, but you can build new steel mills all day. Same with ships, granted it takes time and the demand is there, but if there is some recession won't the dayrates fall? Anyhow it's probably colored from my experience with the 'no brainer' oil shipping stocks which had all the same reasons to go up as the dry bulk (at that time).

Hexdek16 said...

Suppose this is where you get the price back?

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