Update on current top 10 positions

As of this morning my current top 10 positions (and % of total holdings) are:

McDermott (MDR) 5.1%
Western Refining (WNR) 4.1%
Foster Wheeler (FWLT) 3.9%
Suntech Power Holdings (STP) 3.6%
NII Holdings (NIHD) 3.3%
Trina Solar (TSL) 3.2%
Allegheny Technologies (ATI) 3.1%
InterContinental Exchange (ICE) 3.0%
Riverbed Technology (RVBD) 2.9%
Yingli Green Energy (YGE) 2.9%

Roughly 35% of holdings are in these 10 names, with another 7% or so in cash

MDR/FWLT are both global infrastructure plays that have just been trashed in this pullback. Both have the wind behind them as I have blogged about continuously in the short life of this blog. Once I have a better feel for the market stabilizing I'd be happy to add, along with the other infrastructure play I have PCR (which is weak today for some reason) - PCR is a 2.5% position in the fund; and I also have been buying KBR of late - this is the basket approach to the group.

WNR is a refining stock and the refiners have had a bad 6 weeks or so. Their fortunes rise and fall with the 'crack spread' - essentially the variance in price between crude oil and gasoline; with gasoline prices weak (relatively speaking) the past month, their fortunes have suffered. WNR is the most volatile of the refining names, with the highest beta, but it is relatively interchangeable (to me) with some of the bigger fish in the area - Valero (VLO), Tesoro (TSO), Frontier Oil (FTO) - Frontier is a 0.75% position in the fund at this time. Again, these are more long term swing trades - 2-4 month holding periods, and they are now in one of their seasonal troughs. If you look at 2-3 year charts of the names you will see great rises and falls.

I have 3 cohorts in solar energy and my position is larger than usual simply because the names have shown some weakness of late so I am building the basket up of STP/YGE/TSL. STP/YGE are the 2 largest Chinese PV solar panel makers, and YGE if not 3rd is not too far behind. YGE/TSL in particular are high beta stocks - TSL also is set to report shortly so if the stock recovers a bit I will probably lighten my position going into earnings. But for the long run I think solar is an interesting place to be, despite the inevitable threats of commodization.

NIHD is my foray into foreign markets - I will write more later as this is a very interesting stock, but essentially it caters to the South American business cell phone market. The stock has been incredibly weak of late but the long term fundamentals are tremendous.

ATI is the 1 horse I bought in the titanium race. The other 2 popular plays in this space are Titanium Metals (TIE), and RTI International Metals (RTI). TIE's chart was weak even in mid/late July before this market selloff really took place, so I have been avoiding it, whereas RTI had a guidance warning so I have avoided it. Now generally when 2 of the 3 peas in a pod show weakness, it doesn't make much sense to buy the other pea. But in this case I like the long term story with ATI especially in its connection to the Boeing Dreamliner. So while the stock has broken down below key support in the past few days, it was in general holding up well RELATIVE to the other 2 names before the waterfall selloff.

Intercontinental Exchange (and CME Group), are two stocks I just love. However, with their valuations, I am not the only one. ICE had had tremendous weakness (CME has held up better). I think this is a case of hedge fund liquidations as these were momo stock traders favorites. CME was as high as $600 a few days ago, and in the darkest moments yesterday approached $500. Thats a 20% drop in just 2-3 days. Breathtaking. However, all this volatility does is print money for the exchanges and I like these 2 for their exposure to commodities and derivatives. I plan to add to my CME position once things calm down, as I'd like both positions to be "top 15 positions".

Riverbed Technology (RVBD) I've blogged about a few times already. It's my main play on the networking thesis but I have also started building positions in Juniper Networks (2.2% of portfolio), Ciena (2.1% of portfolio), and in 'related' 3rd party plays both Akamai (0.9%) and Broadcom (0.3%) could be considered offshoot plays off the same theme. While Broadcom is a chip play, it's relative strength has been outstanding and it never broke its 50 day moving average even during the waterfall selloff moment. One to keep an eye on.

Long MDR, RVBD, ICE, WNR, STP, TSL