Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Sold small position in Coach (COH)

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I started a new position in luxury bag maker Coach (COH) last Friday

I decided to sell it today after thinking about the situation further. While the stock has been a favorite of mine over the past year, I think the coming housing troubles will hurt even their spectrum of customer. While the VERY high end (north of Tiffany's and Coach, think Hamptons) is doing incredibly well, and to now the next level of US population has been doing well, much of the target audience of Coach in the US could certainly be affected by this slowing in housing.

Coach is a bit of a status symbol, and something many people in mid/upper class suburbia buy. The problem is many people in suburbia are overextended on their $600,000 home bought with 0% down interest only loans. This does not mean they they don't have good credit; it just means they are very leveraged. So it's a risk. While I like Coach as a brand, and internationally (high exposure to Japan), I am going to err on the side of caution and sell my tiny position (50 shares) I had in Coach for a small gain. I'd like to see the market in 6 months to a year to see how things shake up. With the stock price firmly below the 200 day moving average, there is no rush to jump in at this point.

This was the smallest position in the fund and with other stocks I dearly love like Core Labs (CLB) falling back to its 50 day moving average, I'd rather build up positions in stocks I have a lot more near term conviction in.

Now if I could only find a publicly traded stock that sells $9 million yachts - now THOSE people are doing well and totally insulated from any gas price, grocery price increases....

No position

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

You are missing the 1.3 Billion people in China that wish to have a "status symbol". I can assure you...while traveling to Italy last summer with a group from Taiwan all they wanted to do was shop for Louis V vs enjoy Italy. The asian exposure is just starting with Coach and even if 1/3 of 1.3 Billion in China could afford to purchase...that is significant revenue for the handbag maker. Rest of World ROW will push this button NOT the US. Hell all we do is borrow and spend and I honestly believe 90% of US citizens have forgotten how to save!

TraderMark said...

I totally agree on the exposure to China. But that is a long term trend vs the near term 'panic' and Coach's current exposure to US consumer and Japan is currently larger than China exposure. For the long term story, I agree 100% and expect to be revisiting Coach in the relatively near future. Thanks for your comment

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