Saturday, August 11, 2007

Infrastructure group earnings revisions

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Here are some revisions per Yahoo Finance for the global infrastructure plays from old estimate (left) to new estimate (right):

FLR
EPS 07: 3.98 to 4.20
EPS 08: 4.93 to 5.18
Rev 07: 15.56 to 16.72B
Rev 08: 18.21 to 19.84B

MDR
EPS 07: 4.33 to 4.76
EPS 08: 4.81 to 5.17
Rev 07: 5.58 to 5.59B
Rev 08: 6.25 to 6.40B

FWLT
EPS 07: 5.73 to 5.40
EPS 08: 6.38 to 6.44
Rev 07: 5.02 to 4.99B
Rev 08: 5.77 to 5.86B

ACM
EPS 07: 1.09 no change
EPS 08: 1.22 to 1.25
Rev 07: 4.10B no change
Rev 08: 4.65 to 4.73B

URS
EPS 07: 2.49 to 2.52
EPS 08: 2.81 to 2.85
Rev 07: 4.71 to 4.80B
Rev 08: 5.14 to 5.29B

PCR
EPS 07: 2.66 to 3.09
EPS 08: 2.91 to 3.25
Rev 07: 4.08 to 4.31B
Rev 08: 4.41 to 4.88B

Increases were most impressive at FLR, MDR, and PCR - with a near term 2007 reduction in some of the numbers for FWLT
As mentioned earlier this week I did sell my URS, which was part of the the global infrastructure basket I originally set up and essentially replaced it with PCR, which is growing much faster. There are some litigation concerns with PCR which appear to be overhanging the stock, but it did have a nice late day move Friday up 10%.

While I have not brought over my analysis i.e. revenue growth rates, PE, PEG, EPS growth rates etc MDR, FWLT, and PCR continues to be the bargain bin stocks of the group with forward PEs of 17-18 on 07 estimates. This compares to Jacobs Engineering (JEC), KBR and Fluor in the 28-29 range. Now there might be very valid reasons for this discrepency in terms of types of contracts, level of backlog, industry groups served, but for now I am going to go with the "value" plays.

Long MDR

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