Monday, August 20, 2007

Follow through today has been pretty weak

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I think a retest is in order of the 12,500 level but I expected the market to bounce a bit stronger; I wanted to put some hedges in at higher levels but went ahead add added to my position in Proshares UltraShort Russell 2000 (TWM)

along with 2 new positions

Ultrashort Financials ProShares (SKF)
Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares (SRS)

Now an arguement could be made that these trades are already played out and I'd agree that some of the easy money has already been made, but without the ability to short these positions (ETFs that short) are the only way to really have any hedge to the downside.

SKF is more geared to very large banks, which I don't like - I'd prefer to be shorting some of the small mortgage lenders and homebuilders rather than the Citibanks and JPMorgans of the world, but it appears to be the only Ultrashort ETF geared to financials that I could find.

SRS is also not really a residential homebuilding exposure play, but more commercial building short - but that market has held up pretty well thus far and if the credit conditions continue to tighten or hold where they are now there should be some suffering in this space as well.

These are not long term buys; just some (minor) downside protection if/when the market falls. Again I was hoping for more of a bounce to put these on, but the market is not cooperating.

TWM is about 1.25% of the portfolio
SRS/SKF together another 1.5% of the portfolio

Again, not major protection against a major downfall but something.

No positions

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