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Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Cramer on Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) back in May

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Every trader gets it wrong sometimes. However, the adherence to all things Cramer by the retail crowd bemuses me. I mentioned yesterday the tell that Coach (COH) is on the higher end consumer - someone also pointed out Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) . Looking at the chart I see a stock that has fallen about 30 straight points down, 30% in just 6 weeks. Ouch!

Just by chance I ran across this Cramer plug of RL on TheStreet.com, May 31st @ $98:

"Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) is headed higher, Jim Cramer said Thursday on CNBC's "Stop Trading!" segment.

Cramer said Polo is "stealing margin" from the major department stores, based on its strong brand. He likened this change to the 1990s, when the pricing power shifted from the PC makers ... to the makers of PC innards ... because the key intellectual property was based on those two suppliers.

"This is a balance of power shift," Cramer said. "Analysts are starting to get it." He said Ralph Lauren could easily hit $120 from a recent $98.

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Oops. The stock traded between $95 and $102 for about 6 weeks before the above mentioned demolition. Now I don't know Cramer's 'holding' period but it sounded like a long term secular change as RL is stealing margin. Without a 'time frame' on his $120 call it's hard to say what it is. But $120 from here (low to mid $75s) is over 60% gain. I wonder if he is still bullish? ;)

Again, we all make some (in retrospect) dumb calls. I am sure I will have some doozies here for the world to read in the blog. But this call, in light of the overextended consumer, just caught my eye. I guess we can throw Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) in there with Coach (COH) and see both are 'telling' us the same thing.

Long Cramer for entertainment value and education only
No positions

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