The funds top 10 is overweighted with Chinese solar so on today's run I am going to lighten up a bit. Some of these stocks have had some serious weakness in the past few weeks based on concerns about procurement of polysilicon but are showing some nice rebound today.
I decided to average down on these names since I like the longer term story, but I did not intend them to be the 2nd, 3rd and 5th largest positions which Suntech Power Holdings (STP), Trina Solar (TSL), and Yingli Green Energy (YGE) had become. So I am taking some off the table here on the strength. I still would like to be overweight the names but not as 3 of the top 5 positions. While I have been selling off other names into strength, these stocks had remained down in general so I didn't have an opportunity to lighten up. I don't see any particular news other than an oversold condition. Taking about 10-25% off the table on these 3 names.
TSL +9%
YGE +7%
STP +4.5%
On the flipside, I continue to add to the ETF hedge shorts on this powerful and impressive rally. I guess Big Ben is going to whisper enough sweet nothings from his camp excursion in Wyoming to make it all better :)
Edit on the rally today: I see all the fuss is about Big Ben writing a loving letter to Senator Schumer. Without the benefit of sitting at home all day and hearing the CNBC hand wringing/cheering - you miss some of these things.
He wrote that Fed policymakers are "prepared to act as needed" if the market's turbulence hurts the economy helped pad the market's gain.
My take: Wow, what a shocker. The Fed is prepared to act as needed? Which is why they are here in the first place? I guess thats news worthy. It always amazes me what news events drive the markets. Didn't the 50 basis point discount reduction signal to everyone that the Fed is 'prepared to act' - or what about the Fed injecting liquidity into the market on a daily basis for 2 weeks? (seems like they were 'acting' there) Nope - it needs to be spelled out in a love letter to a Senator before people believe it. (But I could say the same about yesterday's end of day selling on Fed minutes written nearly 4 weeks ago! Why react to a Fed discussion back then before they took all these actions?) Humans and their emotions.... so amazing. As always.
Long STP, TSL, YGE in fund; Long STP, TSL in personal account
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
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2 comments:
Any reason why you're not holding JASO? They increased margins from Q1 to Q2 (20.50% to 20.96%), raised revenue guidance and showed great increases from last year. The stock, while becoming oversold with the rest of them this past month, has shown some very good strength.
I used to trade JASO but to be blunt, have not been keeping up with it of late (past 3-4 months). It's on my watch lists and I see it there with the rest of the solar plays (up 9% today) - its end production is more narrow than the more integrated players (cell production focus) so I've focused on the more vertically integrated names, assuming in the long run they can protect margins a bit more than JASO. I also watch LDK close and it's probably something I favor a bit over JASO, if I am going to go more narrow into a solar play. Speaking of which, that LDK chart is looking really nice ;)
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