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Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Bookkeeping: Closing Limelight Networks (LLNW) position

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Just a quick bookkeeping note: for the same reasons I sold off most of my Akamai (AKAM) position this AM, I am closing my tiny Limelight Networks (LLNW) holding. The position was tiny in the first place and if I am going to be in this sector in any way, it is better to be in with the more stable and profitable player, AKAM. I don't need 2 names in the same spot.

LLNW is projected to make $0.00 EPS this year, and $0.14 EPS in 2008. Even if that is off by a factor of 50% (meaning the analysts are really underestimating the power of LLNW), at 2008 $0.28 EPS x 30 forward PE you get a stock price of $8.40.... in 16 months! Which is where it trades today. So probably dead money. Not that it cannot go up, but I'm trying to stick to the more sure names and hit a lot of doubles and singles, with a few triples thrown in. This is more of a whiff or home run play at this point, especially with the new data points emerging on pricing. Even if it doubled from here, I don't have enough skin in the game for it matter to the fund's performance - nor do I have confidence in this name to build a larger position at this point.

It is funny, as a private company Limelight Networks was touted as the Akamai killer, but once the reality was brought to bear in public markets it doesn't look so scary anymore. Did I mention Akamai has some patent infringement lawsuits pending versus Limelight? Essentially - why bother in this environment. And no rally at all on a day like this?

Down to 56 names in the fund, 53 long, and 3 ETFs that give short index exposure.

Long AKAM in fund; no personal position

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